Markets · Asset class

Positioning

Net spec (E-mini S&P)
-10.6k
1wk change
-21.8k
Holder concentration
Report
COT weekly

Net non-commercial positioning is live (CFTC Commitments of Traders, weekly). CFTC’s report resolves to non-commercial / commercial, not to a dealer / fast-money / retail / passive breakdown — no holder-type share is wired, so concentration renders withheld rather than estimated below.

Concentration

The long side is carried by one holder type at a majority share of open interest. A small number of accounts inside it hold most of that share.

Absorption

Dealer inventory is short against it and has been reducing. The natural buyer of an unwind is the one already positioned the same way.

Falsifier

A reduction of the concentrated side into stable prices. That would establish depth the ladder does not currently show.

Net non-commercial positioningE-mini S&P, weekly, CFTC COT — the only positioning series wired
06-3007-0707-1407-2107-2808-0408-1108-18
Bars above the line are net long, below are net short — from CFTC’s public COT series, contract counts only; no holder-type share is derived from it.
How concentration is counted

From filed position reports, exchange open interest by holder category, and the settlement records that follow them. Where a category is small enough that a single account dominates it, the desk says so instead of reporting the category.

What it cannot tell you

Intent, and timing. A concentrated position says what a forced exit would cost, not that anyone is about to take one. The desk publishes the fragility and not a forecast of the trigger.

By instrumentBehaviour under exit, not a directional read
InstrumentShareBehaviour under exit
FuturesCleared and visible. The first place an unwind prints, and the first to gap
OptionsDealer hedging converts a price move into flow, in the same direction
SwapsBilateral. The exposure does not print, and the exit is a negotiation
CashSlowest to move and the only leg where size is genuinely absorbed
Precedent unwindsGeneric, illustrative — not this instrument, not this date
Case 01
Concentration peaked, then reduced over several quarters into stable prices. No event.
Case 02
Reduction began in the options leg. The cash market registered it weeks later.
Case 03
No reduction. The position was still in place when an unrelated funding move forced it.