SPY738.18-0.2%
QQQ707.24-0.8%
NVDA220.78+0.6%
AAPL294.80+0.7%
BTC81,196+0.7%
VIX17.89-0.6%
DXY98.54+0.2%
GLD432.93-0.4%
RegimeGrowth
The Convergence · May 13, 2026
Strait of Hormuz signal cluster strengthens as independent sources align
Independent signals corroborate a single publication claim.
By Mira Halvorsen, CIO
MarketsGrowth regime · 88% confidence
Alert7 of 14 monitored assets are elevated or high risk
WatchConfidence falls below 65 within the publication window.
THE NEW YORK TIMESTHE CONVERGENCE
Latest changesUpdated Today
TodayGLDGLD elevated: macro hedge bid elevated, defensive rotation building
1d agoTLTTLT clears stress: duration haven stabilizes, rates pressure easing
6d agoAAPLAAPL clears stress: consumer anchor stabilizes, hardware cycle recovers
6d agoNVDANVDA elevated: AI factor elevated, crowding risk in focus
6d agoVIX^VIX clears stress: volatility pressure easing, complex normalizing
Featured Intelligence Brief
Cross-asset reading: confidence holds while NVDA drifts elevated
GEOPOLITICAL · MAY 13, 2026
3 of 8 elevated names points to 63% normal breadth holds
Featured Intelligence Brief
Elevated confidence persists despite narrowing breadth
GEOPOLITICAL · MAY 12, 2026
the equity index holds while tanker insurance builds
Regime OverviewUpdated May 13, 2026 at 06:03 AM EDT
Institutional
High Risk
81%
Cluster driver: MSFT.
Growth
High Risk
99%
Cluster driver: XLE.
Defensive
Elevated
66%
Cluster driver: GLD.
Recent Transitions6 state changes
GLDTodayGLD elevated: macro hedge bid elevated, defensive rotation building▲
TLT1d agoTLT clears stress: duration haven stabilizes, rates pressure easing▼
AAPL6d agoAAPL clears stress: consumer anchor stabilizes, hardware cycle recovers▼
NVDA6d agoNVDA elevated: AI factor elevated, crowding risk in focus▲
VIX6d ago^VIX clears stress: volatility pressure easing, complex normalizing▼
Featured Intelligence Brief
Cross-asset reading: confidence holds while NVDA drifts elevated
NVDA is sitting elevated at 100% conviction this morning. The desk reads it as a localized state move, not a regime change. The structural read across the monitored universe remains intact.
NVDA state moving without breadth deterioration is exactly the cost of holding conviction at the margin.
The transition itself is clean: NVDA entered elevated state at 100% confidence. The system's wider read on the cross-asset universe did not flinch — that is the relevant separation. Confidence is a property of factor agreement across the universe; state is a property of each asset. The two can diverge and frequently do during transitions.
What is missing here is breadth deterioration. SPY remains intact, QQQ and AAPL show no shift, and the volatility complex has not confirmed across both VIX and the long-vol proxies. That is the configuration where individual elevated readings stay a feature, not a fracture.
By Elena Wójcik · Head of Editorial
Read full analysisMore Intelligence
013 of 8 elevated names points to 63% normal breadth holds
GEOPOLITICAL · MAY 13, 2026 · 2 min read
the equity index holds while tanker insurance builds
GEOPOLITICAL · MAY 12, 2026 · 2 min read
Cross-asset reading: confidence holds while NVDA drifts elevated
Featured Intelligence Brief · 2 min read
SPY reaches severe as procurement-reaction window develops
GEOPOLITICAL · MAY 11, 2026 · 2 min read
Elevated confidence persists despite mixed asset performance
Featured Intelligence Brief · 2 min read
Signal Monitor14 assets · Updated May 13, 2026 at 06:03 AM EDT
| Symbol | Asset | State | Regime | Confidence | Change | Last transition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | Elevated | Institutional | 45% | -0.2% | 12d ago |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | Normal | Growth | 95% | -0.8% | Stable |
| AAPL | Apple | Normal | Growth | 100% | +0.7% | 6d ago |
| NVDA | Nvidia | Elevated | Growth | 100% | +0.6% | 6d ago |
| MSFT | Microsoft | High Risk | Institutional | 85% | -1.2% | Stable |
| TSLA | Tesla | Normal | Growth | 100% | -2.6% | Stable |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | Elevated | Growth | 100% | -0.3% | 9d ago |
| BTC | Bitcoin | Normal | Institutional | 100% | +0.7% | Stable |
Showing 8 of 14 monitored assetsView full signal monitor →
Risk ConditionsMay 13
SPY Elevated and NVDA Elevated carry the stress read; 3 of 8 monitored assets are elevated or high risk.
NVDA is the diagnostic development at 100% confidence. The pattern is consistent with clustered pressure, not a confirmed broad break.
The stabilizer is 63% normal breadth. The read changes below 53% breadth or 73% confidence over the next 1-2 sessions.
7
Assets in elevated or high risk state
88%
Overall signal confidence
50% normal-state share
Breadth — share of monitored assets in normal state
Cross-Asset SnapshotMay 13, 2026 at 06:03 AM EDT
SPY
738.18
-0.2%
Elevated
QQQ
707.24
-0.8%
Normal
NVDA
220.78
+0.6%
Elevated
AAPL
294.80
+0.7%
Normal
BTC
81,196
+0.7%
Normal
VIX
17.89
-0.6%
Normal
Areas of Building PressureAs of May 13
Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint stress pressur
Strait of Hormuz chokepoint stress hits magnitude 86 (up)
Maritime AIS data confirms vessel clustering and speed deviations consistent with defensive posturing near Qeshm Island, per 120-minute-old primary source. The 86 magnitude score reflects a 14-point rise from yesterday's baseline, with amplification likely if Iran's IRGC Navy extends live-fire exercises beyond declared zones. Confirmation hinges on next 12
Monitor →GLD Elevated pressure
GLD Elevated at 45% confidence amid -12.7% drawdown
The 45% confidence level in GLD's elevation stems from structural stress indicators, though current volatility acceleration remains neutral at 0.00. This reading requires confirmation through sustained commodity channel index divergence or a breach of the 12.7% drawdown threshold. Amplification would occur if stress readings detach from the zero-bound while
Monitor →SPY positioning pressure
SPY positioning stretched at 45% confidence, amber alert
Large players testing resistance with thin conviction—no stress or vol acceleration yet, but drawdowns starting to bite. Needs confirmation via block prints above $522 or dealer gamma flip. Watch for macro catalysts to amplify given weak hands in current zone.
Monitor →Featured ResearchIntelligence & Analysis
Analysis
Analysis briefing
Analysis research item from the Arcane desk.
May 13, 2026 · 1 min read
Read research →The Convergence
The Convergence
No convergence above editorial threshold today.
May 11, 2026 · 6 min read
Read research →Latest IntelligenceToday
GEOPOLITICAL · MAY 10, 2026
The normal-breadth test sits at 75% with 2 of 8 names elevated
2 of 8 monitored names sit elevated while 75% normal breadth holds. The mechanism is China pressure routes through tanker insurance and the crude curve before the index reacts.
MAY 10 · 04:00
Featured Intelligence Brief
Cross-asset reading: confidence holds while NVDA drifts elevated
Signal coherence read
MAY 9 · 17:00
GEOPOLITICAL · MAY 8, 2026
Why headline severity without an equity move is actually procurement-reaction window
The evidence: SPY repriced first while breadth held at 75%. The mechanism: North Korea pressure transmits through procurement-reaction windows, not headlines. The watch: order-book mentions on the next round of earnings.
MAY 8 · 04:00