Arcane
LIVE
SPY739.17-1.2%
QQQ708.93-1.5%
NVDA225.32-4.4%
AAPL300.23+0.7%
BTC76,839-1.5%
VIX18.43+6.8%
DXY99.35+0.1%
GLD417.29-2.3%
RegimeGrowth
The Convergence · May 17, 2026

No published Convergence issue this cycle.

The Convergence publishes only when three independent sources agree above threshold. Live briefings resume when the next published artifact is available.

View the archiveSignal monitor →
MarketsGrowth regime · 83% confidence
WatchThe regime has softened away from a clean institutional read, but the market is not yet in a full defensive configuration.
No active convergence above threshold
THE CONVERGENCE · MAY 17, 2026 · ARCANE INTELLIGENCETHE CONVERGENCE
Regime OverviewUpdated May 17, 2026 at 11:18 PM EDT
Institutional
High Risk
73%
Cluster driver: MSFT.
Growth
High Risk
84%
Cluster driver: XLE.
Defensive
Elevated
78%
Cluster driver: TLT.
Signal Monitor14 assets · Updated May 17, 2026 at 11:18 PM EDT
SymbolAssetStateRegimeConfidenceChangeLast transition
SPYS&P 500ElevatedInstitutional50%-1.2%Stable
QQQNasdaq 100NormalGrowth75%-1.5%Stable
AAPLAppleNormalGrowth100%+0.7%Stable
NVDANvidiaElevatedGrowth85%-4.4%Stable
MSFTMicrosoftHigh RiskInstitutional85%+3.1%Stable
TSLATeslaNormalGrowth60%-4.8%Stable
GOOGLAlphabetElevatedGrowth100%-1.1%Stable
BTCBitcoinNormalInstitutional60%-1.5%Stable
Showing 8 of 14 monitored assetsView full signal monitor →
Risk ConditionsMay 17

SPY Elevated and NVDA Elevated carry the stress read; 2 of 8 monitored assets are elevated or high risk.

NVDA is the diagnostic development at 85% confidence. The pattern is consistent with clustered pressure, not a confirmed broad break.

The stabilizer is 75% normal breadth. The read changes below 65% breadth or 64% confidence over the next 1-2 sessions.

7
Assets in elevated or high risk state
83%
Overall signal confidence
50% normal-state share
Breadth — share of monitored assets in normal state
Cross-Asset SnapshotMay 17, 2026 at 11:18 PM EDT
SPY
739.17
-1.2%
Elevated
QQQ
708.93
-1.5%
Normal
NVDA
225.32
-4.4%
Elevated
AAPL
300.23
+0.7%
Normal
BTC
76,839
-1.5%
Normal
VIX
18.43
+6.8%
Normal
Areas of Building PressureAs of May 17
Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint stress pressur
Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint Stress Escalates
Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is experiencing heightened stress, confirmed by a sustained 86-point upward trend over the past 360 minutes. This escalation is likely driven by increased vessel congestion or geopolitical tensions. Further amplification is probable if regional actors impose additional restrictions or delays.
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Red Sea & Gulf of Aden War risk corridor p
Red Sea & Gulf of Aden war risk corridor severity spikes to 78
Houthi missile engagements and coalition interdictions structurally confirm maritime war risk via AIS deviations and Lloyd's Joint War Committee listings. Primary confirmation derives from flagged vessel reroutings and insurance surcharge filings over the past 6 hours. Amplification occurs if coalition naval patrols intercept additional weapons shipments or
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NVDA volatility acceleration pressure
NVDA volatility acceleration signals elevated pressure
NVDA's volatility acceleration at 0.63 indicates growing instability, supported by an 85% confidence level in its elevated state. This reading is confirmed by a stress level of 1.00, reflecting sustained market tension. Amplification would occur if drawdowns deepen beyond the current -4.4%, signaling heightened risk.
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