The Gaza conflict (sev 95) and Ukraine war (sev 92) have entered a phase of mutual escalation, with Red Sea shipping attacks (sev 85) adding supply-chain friction.
Lloyd's JWC has repriced Red Sea, Black Sea, and Persian Gulf war risk inside a 45-day window.
The desk is watching whether GLD and XLE drags neighbors into the second half.
Markets · monitor · 4 min read
Updated 06:18 AM EDT · Aarav Joshi, Staff Quant
Read briefing →| Symbol | Asset | State | Regime | Read | Change | Last transition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | Elevated | Institutional | Elevated | +0.8% | Stable |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | Elevated | Growth | Elevated | +1.9% | Stable |
| AAPL | Apple | Normal | Growth | Normal | -0.9% | Stable |
| NVDA | Nvidia | Normal | Growth | Normal | +4.3% | 10d ago |
| MSFT | Microsoft | High Risk | Institutional | High Risk | +2.1% | Stable |
| TSLA | Tesla | High Risk | Growth | High Risk | +0.7% | 10d ago |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | Normal | Growth | Normal | +1.6% | 3d ago |
| BTC | Bitcoin | Normal | Institutional | Normal | +0.3% | 5d ago |
Most of the monitored universe remains in normal state. Another two adverse transitions would push the participation review deeper into risk territory.
46% of the monitored universe sits in normal state, with 7 names in elevated or high-risk territory. Watch the elevated cohort for any drift toward high-risk before drawing macro conclusions.
68% aggregate confidence is anchoring the current defensive read. Watch SPY and QQQ first for any broader deterioration.
Intelligence for the regimes you can't see. Built for the desks that run the books that move the markets.