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Markets

Markets

Every market on one page, from the institutions that publish the numbers: the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the EIA and the CFTC. Each figure carries its source and the day it describes; a source that does not answer is left blank and says so.

Every figure is fetched from its publisher and shown with the date it describes. The lead story is ARCANE’s newest Markets investigation.

Across markets

Each figure from its own source, on its own date

S&P 500

7,801.77

−0.2% on the day

FRED · Oct 7

10-year Treasury

5.28%

+1 bp on the day

U.S. Treasury · Oct 7

2s10s spread

51bp

+10 bp in a week

U.S. Treasury · Oct 7

SOFR

3.90%

+1 bp on the day

New York Fed · Oct 6

High-yield spread

303bp

−5 bp in a week

ICE BofA via FRED · Oct 6

EUR/USD

1.1177

−0.82% on the day

ECB fix · Oct 7

WTI crude

$96.24

+0.1% on the day

EIA via FRED · Oct 6

Gold

$4,157.80

−0.7% on the day

Futures, Yahoo Finance · Oct 7

On Oct 7, 2026 the 10-year Treasury yield rose 1 bp to 5.28%, and the 2-year fell 2 bp to 4.77%. SOFR printed 3.90% for Oct 6, 2026, 15 bp above the bottom of the Fed’s 3.75–4.00% range (25 bp wide). On Oct 6, 2026 high-yield bonds paid 303 bp over Treasuries, at or above 51% of days in three years; investment grade paid 83 bp. On Oct 7, 2026 the S&P 500 fell 0.2%; it is up 14.0% this year. The VIX closed at 15.01 on Oct 6, 2026.

A cement plant at Dibba Al Hisn in the United Arab Emirates, its two kiln towers in front of the Hajar Mountains, with heaps of raw material in the foreground

The Numbers Disagree · lead

Cement prices in the UAE have outrun the forecast for building costs

Buyers of construction work carry more of the risk of rising prices when a quoted price for some materials may be guaranteed for only about a month, and one cement producer says its average selling price is higher than a year ago.

6d ago

Archive · through Oct 1, 2026

Every Markets page

Each one reads its own sources
RatesThe Treasury curve, its spreads, real yields and breakevens, bills and auctions.Cash & fundingSOFR and fed funds against the Fed’s range, its facilities, commercial paper and reserves.CreditCorporate spreads by rating and maturity, all-in yields and bank lending standards.EquitiesThe indexes, the eleven sectors, equal weight against cap weight and the VIX.CurrenciesThe dollar against fourteen currencies from the ECB’s fixes, and the Fed’s broad dollar index.CommoditiesOil and gas prices and US stocks from the EIA; metals and grains futures.Central banksSeven policy rates from the banks’ own data, every change in five years.CalendarJobs, inflation, GDP, Fed decisions and Treasury auctions due in the next four weeks.PositioningFutures positioning from the CFTC’s weekly report.

Due in the next two weeks

From the BLS, BEA and Fed schedules, Eastern time
Wed Oct 148:30 a.m. ETBLSReal Earnings
8:30 a.m. ETBLSConsumer Price Index
Thu Oct 158:30 a.m. ETBLSProducer Price Index
Fri Oct 168:30 a.m. ETBLSU.S. Import and Export Price Indexes
Tue Oct 2010:00 a.m. ETBLSState Employment and Unemployment (Monthly)
Wed Oct 2110:00 a.m. ETBLSUsual Weekly Earnings of Wage and Salary Workers

The full four weeks, with Treasury auctions: Calendar. The sentences on the board are written from its figures alone; ARCANE shows no forecasts or consensus figures.

More Markets reporting

Published investigations, newest first
Rows of workers in white protective suits and masks assembling electronics at long green benches on a factory floor in Shenzhen, photographed in 2005

The Numbers Disagree

China's factories speed up while home shoppers stall, widening a demand gap

Faster output is leaning on export orders, leaving Chinese manufacturers exposed if overseas buyers pull back before households at home start spending more.

Manufacturing · Sep 24, 2026

Energy shipping Gulf / East Asia

The numbers disagree

China voices support for Iranian oil as its own ships turn away

Beijing insists on backing Iran in public even as its state tankers reroute and direct imports from Iran fall amid renewed sanctions and blockades.

Archive · Energy shipping · Aug 23, 2026

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China in Beijing

The numbers disagree

Chinese refiners lose access to Iranian crude as prices surge

Beijing continues to justify its oil trade with Iran even as supply evaporates and discounted barrels are replaced by costly alternatives this autumn.

Archive · Energy · Aug 23, 2026

U.S. says 2 merchant ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz as Navy helps to restore shipping traffic - PBS

The numbers disagree

U.S. Navy military corridor keeps oil moving as Iran claims Strait of Hormuz closure

American naval escorts ensure tanker traffic continues despite Iran's repeated claims to have shut the strait, turning the standoff into a contest of control.

Archive · Energy shipping · Aug 21, 2026

Sources

Every number above, where it comes from and when it was read
Markets · ARCANE