Index spread is live (FRED · ICE BofA US HY OAS). Cohort-level spread and issuer counts have no wired source and are withheld rather than estimated. Window is a declared analysis parameter, not a measurement.
Cohort ledgerGrouped by structure, not by rating or sector
CohortIssuersLendersSpreadState
A · maturity inside 18 monthsDefined by refinancing date. Two issuers in it share no sector and no rating.———Structural
B · single-lender dependenceOne relationship carries the facility. Withdrawal is a price event, not a credit event.———Watch
C · covenant reset pendingTerms renegotiate on a date, not on performance. The date is public.———Monitored
Rest of indexDiversified lender base, staggered maturities. Absorbs the average.———Unchanged
Why the index hides it
An index is a weighted average of things chosen for comparability. The cohort is small, so its widening moves the average by a rounding error, and it is not a sector or a rating band, so no standard cut of the index isolates it.
What would falsify it
A cohort refinancing at a spread inside the current quote, with more than one lender in the book. That would establish the widening as sentiment rather than structure, and the desk would restate it.
Read for this page
Filed facility documents and amendmentsA
Maturity schedules from prospectusesA
Dealer quoted size, not quoted spreadB
Lender participation counted per facilityC
Lenders per facility
12–34–67–1011–2020+
Most of cohort A sits in the first two buckets. A facility with two lenders is a facility with one decision-maker in any month where the second is already full.
Cohort A constituentsNamed by structure; identities withheld until the reading is published
IssuerMaturityLendersSpreadStructural note
Issuer A———Facility rolls with the same two lenders it opened with
Issuer B———Single relationship, no syndication precedent
Issuer C———One lender holds most of the commitment
Issuer D———Covenant reset lands one quarter before maturity
Issuer E———Diversified enough to price inside the cohort
Issuer F———Bilateral, and the lender is already at concentration limit
The last comparable windowWhat happened the previous time a cohort defined this way reached its date
T−6 months · Recorded
Spread widened without a rating action, and the index did not move
T−2 months · Recorded
Two issuers pre-funded at a level well outside the quoted spread
T · Recorded
One facility was extended rather than refinanced; the lender base did not grow
T+6 months · Outcome
The extended facility refinanced at the wider level, which then became the reference
The precedent is not a forecast. It establishes that an extension is the likely outcome for a facility with one lender, and that an extension prices the cohort rather than resolving it.