A sector describes what a company sells. A chain describes what it depends on. Everything in this section is written from the second one.
Twelve chains are walked tier by tier, from a raw input to recognised revenue. Each is graded on depth, on how narrow it gets at its narrowest step, on how many months a replacement takes to qualify, on what limits output today, and on who ends up carrying that limit.
Grid interconnection has replaced silicon as the binding constraint on compute
Announced capacity is a statement about chips. Delivered capacity is a statement about substations. The step that now sets the pace sits two tiers below the operator and appears in none of their disclosures: the winding shops that build large power transformers, and the queue for a connection to the network.
60m+Xfmr
36–48Forge
30–42Pkg
24–30API
18–24Cath
12–18Box
3–6
Months to qualify an alternative at each chain's narrowest step. Where substitution runs longer than the cycle that needs it, price adjusts instead of volume.
01 The chain is walked from end demand down to a raw input using customs records, permits and awards, not supplier lists. A tier exists when two independent records agree that it does.
02 Nodes at each tier are counted, with the share the largest one carries. One node above the threshold ends the search: that tier is the chain.
03 Substitution is priced from precedent rather than statement. What matters is not whether an alternative exists but how long it took, the last time, before one could be used.
04 Incidence is named. A constraint with no named bearer has been described, not mapped, and the desk holds the piece until it can say who pays for it.
Coverage is decided by whether something beneath the surface is worth investigating, not by index membership. A theme is a query over one corpus, not a separate desk.
AICompute commitments that outlast the demand assumption behind themRead →EnergyThe financing layer beneath a supply agreementRead →DefenseA procurement commitment outlasts the government that made itRead →SemiconductorsHiring pauses precede the capex revision by a quarterRead →HealthcareA single approval pathway constrains several unrelated linesRead →FinancialsTwo portfolios, one counterparty, no disclosure overlapRead →IndustrialsStated guidance and observed activity disagreeRead →InfrastructureConcession terms that reprice a downstream dependencyRead →