Markets · Rates
Markets · rate structure

Rates

Live references · Sep 3, 2026, 3:44 AM UTC

The reference yield is live. The interpretation starts with who has to own duration and how that funding is changing, not with the level alone.

Live reference board

Source and state rule printed with each value
Rates
US 10Y yield, %
4.796
-0.0bp
Normal
Yahoo FinanceUS 10Y yield · state: |1d| ≥5bp elevated, ≥12bp high risk
Volatility
VIX
15.20
-1.14
Normal
Yahoo FinanceVIX level · state: ≥20 elevated, ≥30 high risk

Reading boundary

What this surface can and cannot establish

What is live

The board carries the US 10Y reference and volatility context. It does not yet carry the full curve, auction book, swap basis, or holder mix.

How to use it

Separate a move in the reference yield from the funding and hedging conditions around it before treating it as a growth or policy signal.

What would change the read

A durable read needs the curve and financing measures to move with the reference. Until those series are wired, this page records the boundary rather than inferring one.

ARCANE Intel - Order from Chaos