Satellite & environment
The physical conditions that reach crop, power, freight and insurance prices: the state of El Niño, the storms at sea, the week’s major earthquakes and the natural events seen from orbit.
ENSO status
El Niño
Advisory · NOAA, Sep 10
Niño 3.4
+3.2°C
Week of Sep 30
Tropical cyclones
3
Strongest: Rachel, 70 kt
Quakes M6+, 7 days
0
115 at M4.5 or more
El Niño and La Niña
NOAA Climate Prediction CenterEl Niño Advisory · NOAA’s synopsis, Sep 10, 2026El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.
Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature against normal, weekly
Latest +3.2°C, in the very strong El Niño range by NOAA’s thresholds. The other regions that week: Niño 1+2 +5.3°C, Niño 3 +4.0°C, Niño 4 +1.2°C.
| Season | Oceanic Niño Index |
|---|---|
| DJF 2026 | −0.4°C |
| JFM 2026 | −0.2°C |
| FMA 2026 | +0.1°C |
| MAM 2026 | +0.5°C |
| AMJ 2026 | +0.9°C |
| MJJ 2026 | +1.4°C |
| JJA 2026 | +1.8°C |
| JAS 2026 | +2.2°C |
Three-month running means of the Niño 3.4 anomaly; five overlapping seasons at +0.5°C or more make an El Niño episode. NOAA’s next discussion is due Oct 8, 2026.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center · read Oct 7, 8:28 PM EDT · data to Sep 30, 2026
Tropical cyclones
Active now, strongest first| Storm | Basin | Wind | Pressure | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RachelHurricane, category 1 | Eastern Pacific | 70 kt | 979 mb | 21.2N, 122.3W |
| IsaiasTropical storm | Atlantic | 55 kt | 994 mb | 22.8N, 92.4W |
| SimonTropical storm | Eastern Pacific | 45 kt | 1002 mb | 15.6N, 102.5W |
| Tropical Storm KogumaFrom NASA’s event list | Outside NOAA’s basins | 55 kts | — | Oct 7, 2:00 PM EDT |
| Hurricane NoloFrom NASA’s event list | Outside NOAA’s basins | 60 kts | — | Oct 7, 2:00 PM EDT |
| Super Typhoon Choi-wanFrom NASA’s event list | Outside NOAA’s basins | 75 kts | — | Oct 6, 2:00 PM EDT |
| Tropical Storm HannaFrom NASA’s event list | Outside NOAA’s basins | 30 kts | — | Sep 30, 11:00 AM EDT |
| Tropical Storm FayFrom NASA’s event list | Outside NOAA’s basins | 25 kts | — | Sep 29, 5:00 PM EDT |
| Tropical Storm GonzaloFrom NASA’s event list | Outside NOAA’s basins | 35 kts | — | Sep 26, 5:00 PM EDT |
NOAA National Hurricane Center · read Oct 7, 10:48 PM EDT · advisory of Oct 7, 11:00 PM EDT
Significant earthquakes
Past seven days: magnitude 6 or more, or any impact alertNo earthquake of magnitude 6 or more, and none with an impact alert, in the past seven days.
The impact alert is USGS PAGER’s estimate of fatalities and economic loss: green is little, yellow to red is increasingly severe.
US Geological Survey · read Oct 7, 10:48 PM EDT · feed of Oct 7, 10:47 PM EDT
Seen from orbit
NASA’s open natural events, past 30 days49 wildfires · 11 sea and lake ice · 8 severe storms
| Iceberg A83Sea and Lake Ice · Oct 1 |
| Iceberg B22FSea and Lake Ice · Oct 1 |
| Iceberg A76CSea and Lake Ice · Oct 1 |
| Iceberg D32Sea and Lake Ice · Oct 1 |
| Iceberg A81Sea and Lake Ice · Oct 1 |
| Iceberg D33BSea and Lake Ice · Oct 1 |
| Iceberg A84Sea and Lake Ice · Oct 1 |
| Iceberg A85Sea and Lake Ice · Oct 1 |
NASA EONET · read Oct 7, 10:48 PM EDT · newest observation Oct 7, 2:00 PM EDT
Why these, and their limits
El Niño and La Niña shift rainfall and temperature across the tropics for months at a time. Historically a strong El Niño has meant drier seasons in Australia, Southeast Asia and India (wheat, palm oil, sugar), low water for the Panama Canal and fewer Atlantic hurricanes; NOAA stresses that a strong event raises the odds of these effects without guaranteeing any of them.
Storms, quakes and fires matter to prices when they reach ports, refineries, farms or insured property. Each list here is the measuring agency’s own; ARCANE adds no estimate of damage.
ARCANE reporting
No published ARCANE story is on these conditions yet.