Prediction markets
What traders are paying, right now, for the outcomes that move portfolios: the Fed and the US data calendar on Kalshi; war, energy and trade on Polymarket.
Fed, Oct 2026
84%
Hold
CPI, next print
3.6%
Even-odds level, year on year
Recession this year
5%
−1 pts on the week
Markets read
22
Kalshi and Polymarket
The US data calendar
Kalshi · each contract settles on the official release| Question | Price · week’s move | Closes | Traded, 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decision in Oct 2026?Kalshi | Hold84% +17 ptsHike 25 bp16% −17 ptsCut more than 25 bp1% 0 pts | Oct 28 | 241,152 contracts |
| Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)Kalshi | Above 3.5%84% −1 ptsAbove 3.6%37% −9 ptsAbove 3.7%12% −2 ptsEven odds at 3.6% | Oct 14 | 195,777 contracts |
| Jobs numbers in October 2026?Kalshi | Above 50K63% +2 ptsAbove 60K49% −6 ptsAbove 70K53% +5 ptsEven odds at 59K | Nov 6 | 9,279 contracts |
| Unemployment in OctoberKalshi | Above 4.0%93% +21 ptsAbove 4.1%69% +8 ptsAbove 4.2%24% −5 ptsEven odds at 4.1% | Nov 6 | 12,623 contracts |
| US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?Kalshi | Above 3.0%70% 0 ptsAbove 3.5%37% −5 ptsAbove 4.0%24% +2 ptsEven odds at 3.3% | Oct 30 | 5,835 contracts |
| Recession this year?Kalshi | Yes5% −1 pts | Jan 31 | 5,206 contracts |
| Recession in 2027?Kalshi | Yes19% −2 pts | Jan 31 | 38,964 contracts |
Kalshi public market data · read Oct 7, 10:48 PM EDT · priced Oct 7, 10:48 PM EDT
The Fed, venue against venue
Fed decision in Oct 2026The same meeting priced on two venues. A gap of more than a few points is a disagreement between two sets of traders, or a difference in how each contract resolves; either is worth knowing before quoting one of them.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cut more than 25 bp | 1% | <1% | +1 pts |
| Cut 25 bp | 1% | <1% | 0 pts |
| Hold | 84% | 84% | 0 pts |
| Hike 25 bp | 16% | 16% | 0 pts |
| Hike more than 25 bp | 1% | <1% | +1 pts |
War, energy and trade
Polymarket · markets with at least $25,000 of liquidity| Question | Price · week’s move | Closes | Traded, 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shipping lanes | |||
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?Polymarket | October 159% −3 ptsOctober 3121% −8 ptsNovember 3036% −6 ptsDecember 3150% −9 pts | Oct 16 | $647K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket | Yes19% −2 pts | Jan 1 | $65K |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Polymarket | October 316% −2 ptsDecember 3116% −1 pts | Nov 1 | $34K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Polymarket | Yes10% −1 pts | Dec 1 | $28K |
| Energy and commodities | |||
| What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?Polymarket | ↓ $8568% −6 pts↑ $9556% −11 pts↓ $8037% −9 pts↑ $10028% −10 pts | Nov 1 | $98K |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Polymarket | October 31<1% −1 ptsDecember 317% | Nov 1 | $51K |
| What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?Polymarket | ↓ $3,50014%↓ $3,0004% −2 pts↓ $2,5004% +2 pts↑ $5,00025% −5 pts | Dec 31 | $37K |
| What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?Polymarket | ↑ $4,20079%↑ $4,30052% 0 pts↓ $4,00044% −1 pts↑ $4,40025% −4 pts | Nov 1 | $32K |
| Conflict and diplomacy | |||
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?Polymarket | October 997%October 1294%October 1591% +14 ptsOctober 3172% +15 pts | Oct 10 | $473K |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Polymarket | Gadi Eizenkot45% −3 ptsBenjamin Netanyahu37% +4 ptsNaftali Bennett9% −6 pts | Oct 28 | $370K |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket | Yes16% +2 pts | Jan 1 | $276K |
| Iran leader end of 2026?Polymarket | Mojtaba Khamenei88% +1 ptsNo Head of State6% +1 ptsReza Pahlavi2% 0 pts | Dec 31 | $173K |
| Trade and tariffs | |||
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?Polymarket | October 3110% −8 ptsNovember 3024%December 3135% −24 pts | Nov 1 | $3K |
| U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?Polymarket | 5–15%79%<5%9% +2 pts15–25%8% −1 pts | Dec 31 | — |
| Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Polymarket | Indonesia13% 0 ptsVietnam13% +2 ptsIndia12%Canada12% +1 pts | Jan 1 | — |
Polymarket · read Oct 7, 10:48 PM EDT · priced Oct 7, 10:48 PM EDT
How to read a price
Each contract pays $1 if the event happens, so its price reads as the market’s probability: 64¢ is 64%. It is what the last traders paid, not a forecast by anyone in particular. Thin books move on small money, and a contract’s resolution rule can differ from the question as you would ask it; open the market before you quote it.
The week’s move is in percentage points against the price about seven days earlier. For a ladder of levels (CPI above 3.5%, above 3.6% …) the page prints the level the market puts at even odds, interpolated between the two rungs either side of 50%.
Venues this read: Kalshi answered · Polymarket answered · Oct 8, 2026
ARCANE reporting
No published ARCANE story is on these markets yet.