Precedents
World · Precedent tracker

Measures outlive the conditions that produced them

Bar length is time in force; the marker is where the stated cause ended; the tail after it is the part nobody forecasts.

MeasureDurationStill on
Routing diversion — passage 05Yes
Slot auction — passage 01Yes
Item-level export controlYes
Emergency import waiverNo
War-risk premium zoneYes
Grain corridor arrangementLapsed
0612182430+
■ Cause active■ In force after cause ended
What the tail is made of

A measure’s tail is made of whatever made withdrawing it costly: a domestic constituency that benefited, an administrative process with no forcing event, or simply no one’s job to propose ending it.

Cause versus mechanism

The cause and the mechanism are not the same thing. The cause is the event the measure answered; the mechanism is the rule, licence or arrangement that keeps running after the event is over — and mechanisms outlast causes far more often than the announcement implied they would.

Four of the six measures below are still in force after the cause that produced them ended. That ratio, not any single case, is the reading.
Case notes
Routing diversion

A diversion adopted for one incident became the default routing long after underwriters stopped pricing that incident specifically.

Slot auction

A rationing mechanism introduced for a drought became the canal’s standing allocation tool, auctioned on every restricted day since.

Emergency import waiver

The lapse counter-example: a waiver granted for a shortage was allowed to expire once the shortage cleared, with no renewal filed.

How to forecast duration
01
Find the off switch

Identify who has the authority to end the measure, and whether ending it is anyone’s job.

02
Check for an expiry

A measure with a written sunset clause behaves differently from one with none.

03
Price the sunk cost

Ask who built around the measure and would be hurt by its removal.

04
Separate cause from mechanism

The cause can end while the mechanism that answered it keeps running.