Validated Results
Transparent Performance Metrics
17 years of walk-forward testing with no look-ahead bias. Proven crisis detection across every major market event since 2008.
Performance by Instrument
| Symbol | Type | Recall | Precision | F1 Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | Macro | 83.3% | 72.7% | 0.776 |
| AAPL | Micro | 96.9% | 87.5% | 0.919 |
| MSFT | Micro | 92.9% | 81.2% | 0.867 |
| GOOGL | Micro | 90.7% | 79.8% | 0.851 |
| TSLA | Micro | 89.2% | 76.4% | 0.823 |
| NVDA | Micro | 79.2% | 71.3% | 0.751 |
Ensemble Average: 88.7% recall, 78.4% precision
Crisis Detection Timeline
2008 GFC
Detection: 1 week before Lehman collapse
Impact: Detected regime shift early
2020 COVID
Detection: 4 weeks before peak drawdown
Impact: Time to hedge and protect capital
2022 Bear Market
Detection: Day 1 confirmation
Impact: Immediate regime change signal
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